Senate Race Competitive?

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Senate Race Competitive?

Post by ohio county on Wed Sep 01, 2010 5:58 am

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/west_virginia/election_2010_west_virginia_senate_special_election


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Re: Senate Race Competitive?

Post by Stephanie on Wed Sep 01, 2010 7:41 am

Can you believe that?

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Re: Senate Race Competitive?

Post by ohio county on Fri Sep 03, 2010 3:27 pm

I tend to believe Rasmussen. I heard today that Manchin had endorsed most of Obama's program, offered his assessment that action was required to combat global warming, and there may be a bit of a backlash brewing. I suspect he's invincible without regard to what he says. But the seat is his to lose.

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Re: Senate Race Competitive?

Post by Aaron on Fri Sep 03, 2010 4:48 pm

I think for Raese to really stand a chance in this election, he's got to hammer Obama daily. If he really wants to be a Senator, he needs to loose his money on television ads and link Manchin to Obama at every chance he can.
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Re: Senate Race Competitive?

Post by Stephanie on Sat Sep 04, 2010 11:54 am

I tend to believe Rasmussen too, this is just so shocking to me.

I read something that I think may hurt Raese come November.

Constitution Party Candidate on Ballot for Senate Seat

Jeff Becker, of Inwood, collected enough signatures to get his name on the special election ballot.

A forth candidate will on the ballot for U.S. Senate in November.
Jeff Becker, of Inwood, Berkeley County, is running as a member of the Constitution Party, according to the West Virginia Secretary of State's Office.

Becker got the required signatures from registered voters across the state, officials said. More than 1,700 signatures are required to be allowed on the ballot.

All the signatures must then be verified as registered voters, according to the Secretary of State's Office.

Repulican John Raese, Democrat Gov. Joe Manchin and Mountain Party candidate Jesse Johnson will also be on the ballot for the Nov. 3 special election.

I am acquainted with Jeff Becker. He's a good guy and I like him a lot. He worked on the Ron Paul campaign in WV and we've stayed in touch since meeting a few years ago.

I wish he wouldn't have done this. Any votes Becker gets will come from voters who otherwise would likely have voted for Raese. That's a problem in a tight race.

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Re: Senate Race Competitive?

Post by Stephanie on Fri Sep 10, 2010 12:55 am

West Virginia Senate: Manchin (D) 50%, Raese (R) 45%
Thursday, September 09, 2010

West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin and Republican businessman John Raese continue to run a surprisingly close race in the state's special Senate election to replace the late Robert Byrd.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in West Virginia shows Manchin with 50% support and Raese with 45%, when leaners are included. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

The West Virginia race now moves from Leans Democratic to a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings. Less than two weeks ago, the first post-primary survey of the race moved it from Solid Democratic to Leans Democratic.

Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. From this point forward, Rasmussen Reports considers results with leaners the primary indicator of the race.

If leaners are not included, Manchin posts a 48% to 44% lead over Raese. In late August just after the two men won their respective party primaries, Manchin was ahead 48% to 42%. In a hypothetical matchup in July after state legislators officially approved the special Senate election this year, Manchin led Raese by a 51% to 35% margin.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of those who support Manchin say they are already certain how they will vote in November, as do 65% of Raese's backers.

Manchin remains highly popular in the state, with 67% approving of the job he is doing as governor versus 32% who disapprove.

A slight plurality (42%) of West Virginia voters, in fact, say it would be better for the state if Manchin remained as governor. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say it would be more beneficial for West Virginia if Manchin represented it in the Senate, but another 21% are undecided.

Manchin is running in a state hard hit by the bad economy and where disapproval of President Obama is even higher than it is nationally. West Virginia voters also favor repeal of the national health care law more strongly than voters nationwide.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in West Virginia was conducted on September 8, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters in the state favor repeal of the health care bill, compared to 56% nationally. Just 29% oppose repeal. These numbers include 49% who Strongly Favor repeal and 18% who are Strongly Opposed.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of those who Strongly Favor repeal support Raese, while 81% of those in the much smaller group who are Strongly Opposed support Manchin.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of all West Virginia voters say repeal will be good for the economy, while 21% say it would be a bad move economically.

Only five percent (5%) of voters in the state describe the U.S. economy as good or excellent, while 57% rate it as poor. Seventeen percent (17%) think the economy is getting better, but 60% say it's getting worse.

Forty-four percent (44%) rate the economy as the number one issue in the race, well ahead of all other issues. Manchin has a narrow lead among these voters.

As for the president, just 36% of West Virginia voters approve of the job he is doing, while 62% disapprove. This is higher disapproval than is found among voters nationwide in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Manchin is viewed favorably by 70% of West Virginia voters and unfavorably by 29%. This includes 38% with a Very Favorable opinion and 10% with a Very Unfavorable one. Only one percent (1%) have no opinion of the governor.

For Raese, favorables are 54%, with 22% Very Favorable. His unfavorables are 37%, including 19% Very Unfavorable. Just nine percent (9%) don't know the GOP candidate well enough to venture any kind of opinion of him.





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Re: Senate Race Competitive?

Post by ohio county on Sat Sep 11, 2010 7:31 pm

I see a lot of activity in Manchin-friendly circles posting "Byrd Family Takes Umbrage at Raese Insensitivity". That's not a direct quote but that's the thrust.

The crux of the issue is that Raese included footage from Byrd's funeral showing Manchin fauning all over Obama. I've tried to make it a policy not to criticize the dead but I don't think Byrd's family has any right to assume the role of kingmakers. There is absolutely nothing wrong with showing Manchin rooting for acorns at Obama's feet. It is an issue. Raese is correct and Aaron is correct in recognizing it.

Can Raese stifle his natural arrogance? Remains to be seen...

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Re: Senate Race Competitive?

Post by Aaron on Sat Sep 11, 2010 10:51 pm

The family complained about the picture only after Manchin brought it to their attention. They didn't seem to have a problem with the fact that in the picture both Manchin and Obama were all smiles. I think were I an immediate member of the Byrd Family, that would upset me more then anything.
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Re: Senate Race Competitive?

Post by ohio county on Sat Sep 25, 2010 2:32 pm

Remember where you heard it first:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/morning-fix/senate-republican-launch-ad-in.html

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Re: Senate Race Competitive?

Post by Stephanie on Tue Sep 28, 2010 1:42 pm

West Virginia Senate: Raese (R) Eases Ahead of Manchin (D)

Republican John Raese has edged ahead of West Virginia’s popular Democratic Governor Joe Manchin for the first time in the state’s special U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely West Virginia Voters finds Raese earning 48% support to Manchin’s 46% when leaners are included. Two percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. To see survey question wording, click here.

These findings move the contest from Solid Democratic to a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.

This race has been closer than expected for weeks as Manchin, despite his popularity with voters in the state, faces an electorate that is even unhappier with the national Democratic agenda than voters in most other parts of the country.

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Re: Senate Race Competitive?

Post by ziggy on Tue Sep 28, 2010 6:24 pm

I thuink we'll see 'em both get down and dirty the next 5-6 weeks.
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Re: Senate Race Competitive?

Post by Cato on Wed Sep 29, 2010 9:31 am

Someone Scared, I think, towit, the following -

Manchin Changes Support for ObamaCare After Polls Show he Trails Raese

September 29, 2010

By Mondoreb

Signs WV Joe Manchin might 'Go Washington' once he's in DC worry West Virginians

Will Joe Manchin “Go Washington” once he leaves West Virginia? The popular governor trails challenger, John Raese in the polls and isn’t helped by Obama’s low approval in the Mountain State. Manchin is also not helped by his appointee, Carte Goodwin’s lockstep votes with Harry Reid and the Democratic leadership.

...

During a March 15 panel on health care at the National Governors Association in Washington, Manchin said that he would vote for the health care bill if he were a congressman. The panel’s moderator, journalist Karen Tumulty, asked Manchin and other governors on the panel, “If you were a House member … and you’ve got your choice: vote up on the Senate bill or vote down on the Senate bill, how do you vote?”

“I’d be for it,” Manchin replied. “You have to move this ball forward. … I have never, since I’ve been in the legislative process, and since I have been governor, I have never got a perfect bill.”

I bet he wishes he he'd never said that... Shocked

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Re: Senate Race Competitive?

Post by Cato on Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:00 am

Here is even more on our illustrious governor's charactor and commitment to preserving his legacy - -

Governor Backpeddles


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Re: Senate Race Competitive?

Post by ziggy on Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:17 am

As his Uncle A.J. use to say, it doesn't matter because it's just "paw-li-ticks". Politics has always been just a big game to the Manchin family.

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Re: Senate Race Competitive?

Post by Aaron on Wed Sep 29, 2010 11:14 am

Hopefully Shelly Moore Capito will run against him in 2012 as he has clearly never been anyones first choice for any statewide office save for SOS he's sought and were it not for Bob Wise literally screwing his way out of office, he wouldn't be the current Governor or candidate for the Senate seat.
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Re: Senate Race Competitive?

Post by ohio county on Fri Oct 01, 2010 6:35 pm

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/248274/gop-heaven-west-virginia-henry-olsen?page=1

With four weeks to go: dead even.

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Re: Senate Race Competitive?

Post by Stephanie on Fri Oct 01, 2010 8:47 pm

Consider this. According to the 2009 American Community Survey, over 94 percent of West Virginians are white. Only 17 percent have a bachelor’s degree or more, and fully 60 percent have never even attended a two- or four-year college or university. While the white working class constitutes between 40 and 50 percent of the national electorate according to various exit polls, it approaches 70 percent of the Mountaineer State’s voters.

The Mountaineer State?

I don't know, Jimmy. It's not that I think he's wrong, it's just that it sounds like he's saying, "Rednecks don't like Obama. West Virginia is 70% redneck." Something about it just sort of rubs me the wrong way.

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Re: Senate Race Competitive?

Post by ziggy on Fri Oct 01, 2010 8:54 pm

Why, Stephanie? Because there just might be some significant truth to it?

As the little boy said, "The truth is what hurts".
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Re: Senate Race Competitive?

Post by Stephanie on Fri Oct 01, 2010 9:20 pm

No, it isn't that at all. I don't look down on rednecks, Ziggy. How could I? My husband's hair is very long, but he wears it tied back.....it doesn't cover his red neck.

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Re: Senate Race Competitive?

Post by ziggy on Fri Oct 01, 2010 10:01 pm

I don't look down on rednecks, either. Hell, I'm one of 'em.

But just as the both liberal and conservative intellegencias can often have their political heads up their butts, relatively uneducated rednecks can too.
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