Re: Romney Xmas Tree

by Aaron Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:45 am

ziggy wrote:
Aaron wrote:While this rant is fine and dandy Ziggy, it has nothing to do with your previous statement. You said talking about a recession won't hurt any and your just flat out wrong. When the lead story on EVERY news station is how bad the economy is, it will have a negative effect on consumer spending.

And as I have said before here, consumers are spending too much money that they don't have on things they don't need. Just look at the consumer debt and family household savings data.

If talking about a recession will help some of 'em to put on the brakes, then bring it on.

Again, that's not what you said. You said talk of a recession won't hurt any, we're either in one or we're not and once again, your flat out wrong. Constant media attention and daily recession discussion can and does affect consumer spending.

That has nothing to do with what consumers can and cannont afford. That's a different thread.

by TerryRC Tue Jan 29, 2008 9:07 am

When I see our president begging the Saudis to please, PLEASE give us a break on the price of oil, I know things aren't going swimmingly.

Really, that made me want to kick puppies.

by shermangeneral Tue Jan 29, 2008 9:13 am

Last year was the worst in history for new home sales. Since they started keeping records.

I have been saying for five years this so-called "recovery" is just a fairy tale.

It has not trickled down to the working people.

The people who have benefitted never had anything to recover from.

by Aaron Tue Jan 29, 2008 9:28 am

shermangeneral wrote:Last year was the worst in history for new home sales. Since they started keeping records.

I have been saying for five years this so-called "recovery" is just a fairy tale.

It has not trickled down to the working people.

The people who have benefitted never had anything to recover from.

I think you need to do some reading on home purchases, up side down mortgages, 107% mortgages, interest only loans and stuff of that nature.

You can also go online and watch a segment from last Sunday's 60 Minutes show. It covers what's happened pretty well with the housing market.

You're a fairly smart feller Sherm. I'm sure if you put your nose to the grindstone, it should clear up some of your confusion.

by ziggy Tue Jan 29, 2008 1:27 pm

Aaron wrote:
ziggy wrote:
Aaron wrote:While this rant is fine and dandy Ziggy, it has nothing to do with your previous statement. You said talking about a recession won't hurt any and your just flat out wrong. When the lead story on EVERY news station is how bad the economy is, it will have a negative effect on consumer spending.

And as I have said before here, consumers are spending too much money that they don't have on things they don't need. Just look at the consumer debt and family household savings data.

If talking about a recession will help some of 'em to put on the brakes, then bring it on.

Again, that's not what you said. You said talk of a recession won't hurt any, we're either in one or we're not and once again, your flat out wrong. Constant media attention and daily recession discussion can and does affect consumer spending.

That has nothing to do with what consumers can and cannont afford. That's a different thread.

That whine is getting old, Aaron- that a thread is limited to what you say it should be limited to. If you don't like where it goes, just ignore it.

Ao are we in a recession, or not?. And is or would that be a good thing, or not?

When people are overspending and the ecomony is "on the upswing" that is usually portrayed as good news by the media. And you are all for that, right? So if talking about overspending is good, then why is not talking about responsible money management also good?

by Aaron Tue Jan 29, 2008 1:47 pm

ziggy wrote:
That whine is getting old, Aaron- that a thread is limited to what you say it should be limited to. If you don't like where it goes, just ignore it.

Ao are we in a recession, or not?. And is or would that be a good thing, or not?

When people are overspending and the ecomony is "on the upswing" that is usually portrayed as good news by the media. And you are all for that, right? So if talking about overspending is good, then why is not talking about responsible money management also good?

I agree. Your whine is getting old but that was long before this thread...

You said what you said...

ziggy wrote:What's defeatist about thinking and/or talking about it?

We either are or we aren't.

...and you were wrong. Continued talk by the media does hurt and is 'defeatist' in the context of the ongoing conversation. But instead of just admitting that you were wrong, you've continue to try and twist it every which way but loose.

Me pointing out how wrong you are isn't trying to steer the conversation, it's simple fact.

No one knows if we're in the middle of a recession or not as it takes 2 consecutative quarters of no growth and we won't know until the quarter is over.

Personally, I don't think it's a bad thing, especially when what is really going on is market corrections as is going on with housing. The thing is, the more the government interfers, the longer it's going to take the market to correct itself.

As I told Sherm on another thread, 60 Minutes did a great story on Stockton, CA. You should check it out.

by ziggy Tue Jan 29, 2008 2:10 pm

Aaron wrote:
ziggy wrote:What's defeatist about thinking and/or talking about it?

We either are or we aren't.

...and you were wrong. Continued talk by the media does hurt and is 'defeatist' in the context of the ongoing conversation. But instead of just admitting that you were wrong, you've continue to try and twist it every which way but loose.

What was I wrong about? I asked a question; then I said that we either are or we aren't in a recession. Is it not correct that we either are or aren't in a recession?

Me pointing out how wrong you are isn't trying to steer the conversation, it's simple fact.

What have you shown that I am wrong about. All you have offered is your opinion that I'm wrong.

No one knows if we're in the middle of a recession or not as it takes 2 consecutative quarters of no growth and we won't know until the quarter is over.

Personally, I don't think it's a bad thing, especially when what is really going on is market corrections as is going on with housing. The thing is, the more the government interfers, the longer it's going to take the market to correct itself.

So if you "don't think it's a bad thing", then what's your beef? Why is speculating about the economy not good?

And again, what am I wrong about?

by Aaron Tue Jan 29, 2008 2:35 pm

You were wrong when you stated there was nothing defeatist in talking about recession and that the constant media reporting of recession talk doesn't effect consumer spending. It is defeatist and it does effect spending. Yes, that is my opinion. Things is though, that opinion is shared by many experts.

This is just one of many articles like this.

Media Nearly Unanimous: 'Recession' Inevitable
Networks overwhelmingly predict recession in 2008 but ignore surveys of economists showing majority do not expect recession.

By Nathan Burchfiel
Business & Media Institute
1/16/2008 1:40:50 PM

Recent polls of economists by leading financial publications have predicted a less than 50-percent chance that the U.S. economy will enter a recession in 2008. But the media’s coverage of “recession” makes it seem inevitable.

"Everyone’s talking about a recession,” Amy Robach reported on the “Today” show January 12.

The broadcast media mentioned the economy or a recession in 54 stories during the first two weeks of 2008. The segments predicted a recession or reported fears of a looming recession four times as often as they reported optimism about the New Year, even though recent surveys of economists put the chance of recession at 40 percent to 42 percent.

ABC, CBS and NBC reported “more signs of a looming recession,” “deepening troubles,” “new fuel for recession fears,” “rattled consumers,” “an economy on edge” and “bracing for recession,” or some scary variation a total of 32 times. They mentioned positive predictions in only eight stories.

“And the major concern heading into 2008 is that big ‘R’ word, recession,” David Muir ominously reported on January 1. “When does the mortgage mess, the housing market, lead to that?” he asked, assuming that a mortgage “mess” inevitably leads to recession.

ABC reported “growing concerns the economy may be heading toward recession.” CBS mentioned that “when companies stop hiring, it’s often a sign we’re slipping into a recession.” NBC noticed that in a speech about the economy, President Bush “stopped short of warning that America may be sliding into a recession.”

On the “Evening News” January 9, Anthony Mason reported that Goldman Sachs became the third “major Wall Street firm in the past week to forecast a recession,” neglecting to mention a survey of economists showing most did not predict a recession.

more here...

by **Stephanie** Tue Jan 29, 2008 2:42 pm

Aaron,

Given the overwhelming amount of personal debt being carried by most Americans, why is it a bad thing citizens are being more responsible with their money?

If our economy is that fragile that fiscal responsibility by average Americans will send it into recession, how strong is it?

by Aaron Tue Jan 29, 2008 2:50 pm

Stephanie wrote:Aaron,

Given the overwhelming amount of personal debt being carried by most Americans, why is it a bad thing citizens are being more responsible with their money?

If our economy is that fragile that fiscal responsibility by average Americans will send it into recession, how strong is it?

It's not and I never said it was. Personally, I don't think a recession is a bad thing, especially when it's for market corrections, which is what we're experiecing right now.

As for us being in a recession, we're not in one yet. Experts predicted a growth or around 1.5% for this quarter. Of course that was before the media HAD to make the economy the #1 topic (the price we pay for success in Iraq I guess) and talk us right into the perceived recession which led to the vote buying stimulus package that is being debated now.

by **Stephanie** Tue Jan 29, 2008 3:13 pm

Aaron wrote:
Stephanie wrote:Aaron,

Given the overwhelming amount of personal debt being carried by most Americans, why is it a bad thing citizens are being more responsible with their money?

If our economy is that fragile that fiscal responsibility by average Americans will send it into recession, how strong is it?

It's not and I never said it was. Personally, I don't think a recession is a bad thing, especially when it's for market corrections, which is what we're experiecing right now.

As for us being in a recession, we're not in one yet. Experts predicted a growth or around 1.5% for this quarter. Of course that was before the media HAD to make the economy the #1 topic (the price we pay for success in Iraq I guess) and talk us right into the perceived recession which led to the vote buying stimulus package that is being debated now.

Yet you're accusing the media and others of talking us into a recession, like it were a bad thing, if possible.

I don't agree with you, I know recession hurts average Americans. I think there may be some bit of truth in the idea that negative forecasts can be harmful, but not harmful enough to cause an actual recession.

Given that it is agreed by most experts that recession is bad and impossible to prove is going on until you're in the midst of one, I don't understand why you wouldn't want policy makers to heed warnings and take steps to avoid recession. I can certainly understand disagreeing with the proposed temporary rebates or whatever they're calling the current plans. I believe we need to reduce the size of government and taxes to spur growth.

by **ohio county** Tue Jan 29, 2008 3:21 pm

Aaron is right: saying we are in a recession or a depression is a self-fulfilling prophesy.

by Aaron Tue Jan 29, 2008 3:28 pm

Stephanie wrote:Yet you're accusing the media and others of talking us into a recession, like it were a bad thing, if possible.

I don't agree with you, I know recession hurts average Americans. I think there may be some bit of truth in the idea that negative forecasts can be harmful, but not harmful enough to cause an actual recession.

Given that it is agreed by most experts that recession is bad and impossible to prove is going on until you're in the midst of one, I don't understand why you wouldn't want policy makers to heed warnings and take steps to avoid recession. I can certainly understand disagreeing with the proposed temporary rebates or whatever they're calling the current plans. I believe we need to reduce the size of government and taxes to spur growth.

First, I should clarify something. I should have said I don't think a recession is ALWAYS a bad thing. The amount of loss has to be taken into consideration and there's a lot more to be considered then no growth.

If you read the story I posted a link to, or google media and recession you might find that many experts do believe the media can report us into a recession.

by **Stephanie** Tue Jan 29, 2008 7:39 pm

Aaron,

I wish I had worded that last post of mine differently. Let me try it again.

I acknowledge that in a weak economy negative forecasts can lead to recession. That's the problem I see us facing now. We're too far in debt, citizens and nation alike. We're too dependent on foreign goods and services. Entitlement spending is out of control, we have a war that is costing us trillions with no end in sight. A privately owned bank prints money backed by nothing spurring inflation. The trade deficit is an abomination.

If we weren't in debt to foreign nations, if we didn't have a monsterous trade deficit, if we had a sound monetary policy, the media crying the sky is falling wouldn't be able to push us into recession. If we had a robust, healthy economy what the talking heads of the media say wouldn't make a damn bit of difference.

by Aaron Tue Jan 29, 2008 10:02 pm

And if one party didn't have a defeatist agenda, the liberal media wouldn't have spent the past 4 years or so telling us how bad things are. But they have and they've talked the government into spending another $150Billion more to 'stimulate' when what we should be doing is cutting spending, cutting taxes and not issuing vote buying checks.

But that party does have that agenda, the liberal media has been telling us that for 4 years and the government, if we're lucky, will ONLY spend $150 billion.

by ziggy Tue Jan 29, 2008 11:07 pm

ohio county wrote:Aaron is right: saying we are in a recession or a depression is a self-fulfilling prophesy.

So what should we do? Go around wearing rose colored glasses saying "Damn the debt and damn the spendthrifts among us; full speed ahead!" ?

by Cato Wed Jan 30, 2008 6:53 am

[quote="SamCogar"]

SheikBen wrote:

GEEEZE, if the Democrats appropiate $1,000,000,000 to fund a "program for the poor folks", ......... $900,000,269 will be spent on Administration to oversee how the remaining $99,999,731 will be spent.

It will cost more than that for them to adminsiter it Wink

by Cato Wed Jan 30, 2008 7:01 am

If we have a recession it will be because of two things. Either we'll talk ourselves into it or the democrats and republicans will stimulate Wink

us into one. What most people don't think about is that economies expand and contract. Economies adjust to conditions.

Of course the news media being as biasd as it is, isn't doing anyone any favors here either. Take for example forclosures, you would think everyone was loosing their home. I was read this morning that the rate was at 15 per 1,000 homes. That's less than 1% of all home loans.

I have a relative that is a developer and land speculator in the Eastern Panhandle and Washington markets. His statement has always been that the conventional loan market was sound. He'll be the first to tell you that what mess there is came from leaners who tossed leaning standards out the window and made loans to people who won't or couldn't pay them back.

So, those of you that believe the economey is a complete disaster, you just keep on believeing it. Afterall, as one man pointed out, economists have predicted 12 of the last 6 recessions.

Cato

by SamCogar Wed Jan 30, 2008 8:53 am

Cato wrote:If we have a recession it will be because of two things. Either we'll talk ourselves into it or the democrats and republicans will stimulate us into one. What most people don't think about is that economies expand and contract. Economies adjust to conditions.

Of course the news media being as biasd as it is, isn't doing anyone any favors here either. Take for example forclosures, you would think everyone was loosing their home. I was read this morning that the rate was at 15 per 1,000 homes. That's less than 1% of all home loans.

Right on, and the naysayers are touting a 75% INCREASE in said forclosures ...... which still only involves that 1%.

But they don't tell you that.

Which, if my calculation is correct, increases it to 17.7 per 1000 homes or 1.8% of all home loans.

.

by Aaron Wed Jan 30, 2008 9:00 am

SamCogar wrote:
Cato wrote:If we have a recession it will be because of two things. Either we'll talk ourselves into it or the democrats and republicans will stimulate us into one. What most people don't think about is that economies expand and contract. Economies adjust to conditions.

Of course the news media being as biasd as it is, isn't doing anyone any favors here either. Take for example forclosures, you would think everyone was loosing their home. I was read this morning that the rate was at 15 per 1,000 homes. That's less than 1% of all home loans.

Right on, and the naysayers are touting a 75% INCREASE in said forclosures ...... which still only involves that 1%.

But they don't tell you that.

Which, if my calculation is correct, increases it to 17.7 per 1000 homes or 1.8% of all home loans.

.

I saw on TV this morning where average house prices have fallen from 298K to 275K since last year. The government needs to stay out of this and let the market correct itself.

by ziggy Wed Jan 30, 2008 9:04 am

SamCogar wrote:
Cato wrote:If we have a recession it will be because of two things. Either we'll talk ourselves into it or the democrats and republicans will stimulate us into one. What most people don't think about is that economies expand and contract. Economies adjust to conditions.

Of course the news media being as biasd as it is, isn't doing anyone any favors here either. Take for example forclosures, you would think everyone was loosing their home. I was read this morning that the rate was at 15 per 1,000 homes. That's less than 1% of all home loans.

Right on, and the naysayers are touting a 75% INCREASE in said forclosures ...... which still only involves that 1%.

But they don't tell you that.

Which, if my calculation is correct, increases it to 17.7 per 1000 homes or 1.8% of all home loans.

.

15 X 1.75 = 26.25 per thousand, or 2.6 percent.

by Aaron Wed Jan 30, 2008 9:52 am

I wonder how many of those 1.8 or 2.6% of homes that were forclosed were 'flip' houses?

People can talk all they like but I've got 2 friends and we're actually looking at a couple of properties to invest in. While there are some people suffering now, there's going to be a lot of people make some money over the next few years.

I've mad an offer three times for a house in Cross Lanes that was 50% of the last loan value. The guy that told me to kiss his rear the first time is selling cars now (bad loans will do that), the second offer was a flat out no and the last one was put before a committee for a vote before being rejected. I'll make another offer in a month or so and sooner or later, I'll get it.

by Sponsored content