Time to pony up....

Well the big "do or die" Pennsylvania primary is upon us.

The so-called mainstream media has been trying for a month now to promote their agenda and declare that the wicked witch is dead on Wednesday morning.

You right-leaning posters may not realize it, but the leftwing "establishment" radicals also hate Hillary.

They have become so vicious I have suspended listening to them at least temporarily.

But if you remember they said Clinton's lead had vanished in California but she ended up winning by ten. (Remember Ted Kennedy and John Kerry's endorsement was supposed to seal the deal for her demise?)

But not only did they fail to deliver California but they got egg on their face by getting trounced in Massachusetts.

Then it was Texas and Ohio. They declared her lead had vanished in Texas and it was real close in Ohio.

But when the dust settled she won Texas by a comfortable 5 point margin and it was a blowout in Ohio.

So my conclusion is the limo liberal crowd does not speak for traditional Dems or even redneck lefties like me.

I predict Hillary will win Pa by at least 12 or 15 points.

(Even though she is being outspent 4-1 and has all the Party hoi poloi working against her).

So here is your chance to post predictions prior to Tuesday.

Good luck.

Hillary by 4; Obama claims it a victory.

Well Mike I agree it will be billed as an Obama victory.

Anything less than a double digit win by Hillary the headlines will still claim an Obama win.

Anything over that and they will blame the ignorant voters.

A big portion of Obama's top supporters/inner circle are definitely not little d democrats.

And neither is the so-called mainstream media.

The msm today is more like the supermarket tabloids of 20 years ago.

Sherm,

On that we quite agree.

If Pa Democrats give Hillary all their Electorial votes ........ then she will stay in the race ........... and her and Obama will continue badmouthing each other with ever increasing fevor and more and better "dirt" will surface and with added spit the mud will be flinging.

And Hillary will be digging for some really great "dirt" that would give cause for a brokered Convention where she could win the Nomination.

Me thinks Hillary isa hopeing Obama will have a "Gary Hart Moment".



.

I don't care. I'm sick of hearing about those two. I'm willing to bet there are an awful lot of Pennsylvanians who are tired of hearing about, and from, them too!

Well Steph neither of them are my choice so I guess in a way I am tired of hearing about them too.

So tell me who we are supposed to talk about on the politics section.

Ron Paul?

He is no longer in the running.

If he ever was.

Sorry to bore you but it seems to me the Hillary/Obama race is about the most interesting thing in that category right now.

Across the country Ron Paul continues to pick up delegates. Yes, I think the what's going on in Ron Paul's campaign is much more interesting than what's going on with the Democrats.

Remember, neither remaining Democratic candidate can fart without the free world hearing about it. Ron Paul achieves these victories without all the press and fanfare.

http://www.kansascity.com/news/breaking_news/story/583242.html

Republicans who support Texas congressman Ron Paul for president won all three available national convention seats from Missouri’s 5th congressional district today.

The delegates, who will attend the GOP convention in Minneapolis this September, are still expected to vote for Sen. John McCain on the first ballot, unless party rules change.

But they say they hope to force the Republican Party to more closely reflect Paul’s libertarian views.

“I’m more than a full-time volunteer to this revolution of information and ideas and freedom,” said Catherine Bleish, one of the three delegates chosen at the district convention in Lee’s Summit. “We hope to fundamentally change the platform of the Republican Party.”

Her election — and that of fellow Paul supporters Larry Holland and Gregory Pals — came after a compromise with party leaders in Jackson County, which makes up most of the 5th district.

Under the compromise, potential Paul delegates agreed to sign a pledge to follow party rules, including the current rule binding them to the winner of Missouri’s presidential primary — McCain.

In exchange, GOP regulars agreed to drop potential challenges of Paul delegates, who were picked at a tumultuous Jackson County meeting in March.

"Across the country Ron Paul continues to pick up delegates."

Well Steph I confess I did not know he was picking up delegates.

How many does he have now?

I realize we dont always get the full picture, but I thought McCain pretty well had the nomination tied down.

McCain has the Republican nomination all wrapped up. It will not go to a second round.

Well Aaron why have you not made a prediction?

Are you afraid someone will poke fun if you are wrong?

Heck dont let that bother you.

I am wrong most of the time in my predictions.

(Because I always really believe my candidate will win.)

Sherm,

I'm really not sure how many delegates Dr. Paul has. Certainly more than the MSM will report.

I think anything is possible, and "it ain't over till it's over". While I doubt there will be enough Paul delegates to defeat McCain, I'm certain there will be enough to impact other decisions that will be made at that convention.

Well I can see why people don't want to stick their neck out and make a prediction.

That way they don't have to worry about being wrong.

However it turns out they can just say that's the way they figured it would be.

Hats off to you Mike for stepping up on this one.

I will not criticize your prediction even if the margin is much higher.

(which I think it will be.)

Sherm, how can one make a prediction on the outcome of Pa's Primary when I do not know "who" is listed on their Ballots and whether or not "crossover" voting is permitted or which Party if any that Independents are permitted to cast Ballots for?

The Braxton County Democrat Ballot lists .... Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama as POS candidates,

The Braxton County Republican Ballot lists .... Ron Paul, Alan Keyes, John McCain, Jerry Curry, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney as POS candidates.

.

Well Sam I will put up a similar poll about the WV Primary next week and maybe we can get your predictions on that one.

Since you will have the actual ballot listings and all.

I see your point though as long as these people are still on the ballot they could win.

My guy Edwards could win WV on the Dem side and Stephanie's Ron Paul could win for the Republicans.

Maybe we will get a better response with the WV Poll.

Well Sherm, do the Jackson County Ballots list the same Candidates as the BC Ballots?

I think Hillary will win PA Sherm, just as she did Ohio, NY, TX, CA and NY. I have no idea what the margin will be because like Sam said, I know nothing of cross over voting and stuff of that nature.

In the end though, it leaves an interesting quandry for superdelegates. Obama may very well have the pledged delegate lead and popular vote, but the bulk come from states that John McCain is likely going to win come November. Hillary has won the states that Democrats are going to win in November. With as much as 30% of Hillary supporters stating they won't vote for Obama, do the SD's take a chance and stick with Obama or do they nominate who they think can defeat McCain?

SamCogar wrote:Well Sherm, do the Jackson County Ballots list the same Candidates as the BC Ballots?

For President, yes, but the candidates for Sheriff & County Commissioner might be just a wee bit different.

Dem voter surge could cut Clinton margin Jeanne Cummings
Mon Apr 21, 5:29 AM ET

An historic spike in Democratic voter registrations in Pennsylvania could help Barack Obama cut into Hillary Clinton’s vote in Tuesday’s primary, robbing her of the big victory margin she needs to justify continuing the primary fight.

The changing party demographics also are contributing to an overall bluing of the Keystone State that could dim Republican John McCain’s hopes of competing there in the fall.
link...

Now those new voters could just as easliy vote for Hillary giving her an even larger margin of victory.

Maybe Sherm's onto something here. Maybe the liberal media really does want the inexperienced socialist liberal black man to wind over the experienced socialist liberal woman.

And they've already got the inexperienced socialist liberal black man defeating John McCain in Pa in November. HMMM.

Aaron wrote:
Now those new voters could just as easliy vote for Hillary giving her an even larger margin of victory.

Maybe Sherm's onto something here. Maybe the liberal media really does want the inexperienced socialist liberal black man to wind over the experienced socialist liberal woman.

And they've already got the inexperienced socialist liberal black man defeating John McCain in Pa in November. HMMM.

I predict, that come November, there will be several types of "one (1) issue voters" that will be voting for the Democrat Candidate.

1. Those wanting more entitlements for themselves.

2. Those wanting a female as President.

3. Those wanting a black African American as President.

4. Those wanting a Democrat, ..... any Democrat, .... as President because they actually believe a Democrat President will create TENS of MILLIONS of high paying jobs and they will be able to get one of them.

Silly, dillusional people, ....... all of them.

By the time the November Election gets here and that $117/barrel and greater crude oil prices which will have "kicked in" at the gas pumps costing $4+ to $6 a gallon, plus the increased cost of food, goods, services and public transportation, .......... it will be too damn EXPENSIVE for anyone to even think about creating any "high paying jobs".

For every such "high paying job" that is created ....... there has to be 3 or 4+ people with enough money to purchase the goods or services produced by said "high paying job" ....... which means the purchasers must have some form of income$ themselves.

Thus, it is asinine and folly for anyone to think that the Democrats are capable of creating said "high paying jobs", ....... then taxing the hell out of those "high paying job" holders, ........ giving 2/3 of those taxe$ to those without jobs .......... to purchase the goods and services provided by those with jobs.

It is folly for anyone attempting to circumvent "The Law of Diminishing Returns".

But, ........ , ....... iffen ya want to try.

.

Hillary by less than 10%.

With more than 99% of the vote in, Clinton's margin hovers just a hair above 9.5%, leaving sort of annoyingly ambiguous, and reliant on the second decimal place, the (meaningless) question of whether she won by double digits.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/

I watched GMA and the first thing they ask her this morning is if it becomes clear she can't overtake BO in either the delegate count or the popular vote, should she drop out. This after a nearly double digit win in a state Democrats have to win.

If dem's had a winner take all as Republicans and the General election are, this wouldn't be a contest. The biggest state BO's won is his home state of Il.

I was flipping through the cable news this morning. I got some guy who claims he went to the Obama rally in McKeesport and asked supporters what they would do if Clinton won. Two thirds of Obama's supporters pledged to support the nominee whoever he/she was. On the other hand, he asked the same question of Clinton supporters in California, PA. Fully 50% of them answered that they'd either vote for McCain or sit it out.

Well I have to say it looks like OC and Aaron were probably the two closest.

I have been in Pa a lot lately and saw a lot more support for Hillary.

(But I was not in downtown Philly.)

Based on my observations I overestimated Hillary's victory, but it was still huge, all things considered.

But I have very little confidence in the mainstream media to report how it is going.