Bye, Bye Dodd

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Connecticut now finds Dodd attracting just 35% to 40% of the vote against three possible Republican challengers.

Former GOP Congressman Rob Simmons is still his toughest opponent, leading Dodd 48% to 35%. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate in this contest, and 11% are undecided. Those figures are a slight improvement for Simmons since September.

The newest Republican in the race, Linda McMahon, the ex-CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, earns 44% of the vote to Dodd’s 38%. Eight percent (8%) opt for another candidate, with nine percent (9%) not sure.

Long-shot candidate Peter Shiff, the widely-known president of Euro Pacific Capital, is essentially even with Dodd and holds a one-point edge, 40% to 39%. In their race, eight percent (8%) like some other candidate, and 14% are undecided.

An incumbent who polls below 50% is generally viewed as vulnerable, and the fact that even Shiff is now moving up on Dodd suggests that next year’s election continues to be a referendum on the longtime senator.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

Fortunately for Dodd, the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats may prove to be somewhat less of a problem than it is for many other incumbents. In Connecticut, voters are almost evenly divided: 48% favor the plan, while 51% oppose it. Voters nationally are more strongly opposed.

Still, 60% of Connecticut voters say the plan will increase the deficit, and 80% say it’s likely to force an increase in middle-class taxes.

Forty-three percent (43%) of Connecticut voters favor the so-called “public option,” while 37% are opposed. But if that plan might cause employers to drop coverage and push their workers onto a government-run plan, the numbers change dramatically. Then 30% favor it, and 56% are opposed.

How does this play out for Dodd, a strong advocate of the health care plan? All three of his potential GOP opponents run even more strongly among voters who currently have health insurance. Dodd loses to Simmons by 18 points, to McMahon by 11 and to Shiff by six.

Among voters who do not have health insurance, Dodd wins by double-digits against all three Republicans.

Nineteen percent (19%) of Connecticut voters have a very favorable opinion of Dodd, up from 10% in September, but twice as many (39%) still view him very unfavorably.

Simmons is seen very favorably by 12% and very unfavorably by eight percent (8%), virtually unchanged from September. For McMahon, very favorables total 14% and very unfavorables are 17%. Four percent (4%) have a very favorable view of Shiff, while 10% regard him very unfavorably.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Working in Dodd’s favor is the continuing popularity of the president. Obama carried Connecticut by 23 points last November, and 57% currently approve of the job the president is doing. Forty-three percent (43%) disapprove. Thirty-six percent (36%) strongly approve of how Obama is performing, while 33% strongly disapprove. These findings are well ahead of Obama’s job approval ratings in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

A plurality (44%) of Connecticut voters approve of the president’s new plan for Afghanistan, which also is slightly better than the findings nationally.