Election 2010: Massachusetts Special Senate Election

State Attorney General Martha Coakley holds a nine-point lead over her Republican rival, state Senator Scott Brown, in Massachusetts’ special U.S. Senate election to fill the seat of the late Edward M. Kennedy.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Coakley ahead of Brown 50% to 41%. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

The special Senate election will be held on January 19 and special elections typically feature low turnout. That’s one reason the race appears to be a bit closer than might typically be expected for a Senate race in Massachusetts. Kennedy carried 69% of the vote when he was reelected in 2006.

Coakley, who was elected attorney general in 2006, defeated several other candidates to win her party’s nomination in a December 8 Primary. Brown, who has served in the State Senate since 2004, won the GOP Primary the same day.

The health care issue is expected to play a big role in the debate and Massachusetts voters hold modestly favorable attitudes about the proposed legislation. In the Bay State, 53% favor the plan working its way through Congress and 45% oppose it.

However, as is the case nationally, those who feel strongly about the bill are more likely to be opposed. The overall figures include 36% who Strongly Oppose the plan while 27% Strongly Favor it.

Nationally, most voters oppose the proposed health care plan.

Both candidates get better than 70% of the vote from members of their respective parties, but Brown leads 65% to 21% among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties. In Massachusetts, however, Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans and it is very difficult for the GOP to compete except in special circumstances. Eight percent (8%) of Democrats remain undecided while just 3% of Republicans are in that category.

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Twenty-one percent (21%) of those likely to vote in the special election have a very favorable opinion of Coakley, while 22% have a Very Unfavorable view.

For Brown, the numbers are 25% very favorable and 5% very unfavorable.

Special elections are typically decided by who shows up to vote and it is clear from the data that Brown’s supporters are more enthusiastic. In fact, among those who are absolutely certain they will vote, Brown pulls to within two points of Coakley. That suggests a very low turnout will help the Republican and a higher turnout is better for the Democrat.

In 2006, Massachusetts implemented its own statewide version of health care reform which has been cited as a model for the national plan. But just 32% of the state’s voters consider that reform a success. Thirty-six percent (36%) consider the plan a failure, and another 32% are not sure.

Despite the creation of a statewide health plan in part to address rising costs, most Massachusetts voters (54%) say cost is still the biggest problem with health care. Twenty-four percent (24%) cite a lack of universal coverage, while 11% say it’s the quality of care. Just three percent (3%) complain of the inconvenience of scheduling.

Voters in the state are evenly divided over the creation of a single-payer health plan. Nationally, support for a single-payer system is much lower.

Forty-four percent (44%) of those likely to vote in the special election say Obama is doing a good or excellent job in handling the war in Afghanistan. Twenty-four percent (24%) rate his performance as poor.

Forty-five percent (45%) believe the situation in Afghanistan will worsen in the next six months, while just 19% say it will get better. Twenty-three percent (23%) expect it to stay the same.

Views about Afghanistan and the war on terror are roughly comparable to those nationally. Thirty-one percent (31%) of voters in Massachusetts say the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror; 32% say the terrorists are ahead, and 32% view it as a draw right now.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) say the U.S. legal system worries too much about protecting individual rights in cases involving national security. Twenty-six percent (26%) say the system is too concerned about protecting national security, and 25% say the balance is about right.

Obama carried 62% of the vote in Massachusetts in November 2008, and 57% of those likely to vote approve of the job he is doing, including 35% who strongly approve. This is considerably better than Obama’s ratings nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.