(How does a woman tell a black it's not his turn?)

Hillary Clinton's "surprising" win over Barack Obama in the nation's first primary -- in defiance of what polls had predicted and political prognosticators had projected -- has had pundits puzzled.

It must have been the tears, goes the conventional wisdom. She choked up and women raced to the rescue, voting for Clinton over Obama 46 percent to 34 percent. But were they real tears?

They were real to the extent they were there at all. What Americans witnessed wasn't the studied tear rolling all the way to the jaw line, an image of emotion perfected by Hillary's husband. It was more a catch in the throat and the hint of tears welling behind eyes that betrayed a flagging spirit.

Women recognized it right away -- a mixture of fatigue and vulnerability. "It was the first time I've ever thought she was someone I'd like to have a glass of wine with," said a female friend of mine, who is no Clinton fan.

That sentence alone was more predictive than any poll of what was about to happen. When a woman says she's ready to pour wine with another woman, she means all previous misunderstandings are forgiven. Symbolically, it's assent to the question, "Can we talk?" and recognition of an ancient

consensus: Girls stick together when boys gang up.

It must have been the tears, goes the conventional wisdom. She choked up and women raced to the rescue, voting for Clinton over Obama 46 percent to 34 percent. But were they real tears?