Elites Way Off on Palin Electability

Figure that almost all media coverage of Palin for the previous 2 years has been incredibly negative, accusatory, insulting, misleading, and "downright mean", to quote Michelle Obama.

The good news is: things couldn’t get worse for Palin. The majority of current opinion about Palin is formed not on thoughtful consideration of her, but on minimally whimsical knowledge bandied about by frivolous “media” and entertainment personalities.

Most voters, sadly, know more about Charlie Sheen and American Idol than they do about Sarah Palin or Barack Obama. Their opinion of her is that she is a ditzy beauty queen who is obviously controversial and not electable, and very, very right wing. After all, we just got our news from Saturday Night Live, Politico, or The Daily Show, so it must be true.

But what happens when 100 Million people tune into a debate between Barack Obama and Sarah Palin? What happens when she speaks freely and convincingly in that debate, as she did in a great interview with the Long Island Association? And then what happens when people realize that she isn’t the moron “they” have attempted to portray her as? That she can speak without uhhh’s and ummm’s like someone else cannot? And when Palin releases, yes I will say it, Reaganesque commercials that are inspiring and uplifting, you know about America being that shining city on a something or another? How quickly will opinion change when people realize that Sarah Palin is not what the media have portrayed her as?

http://conservatives4palin.com/2011/03/poll-insider-elites-way-off-on-palin-electability-part-1-and-more-on-the-theory-of-palin-as-the-unknown-known.html

Bill Maher uttered a female vulgarism when referring to former Republican VP candidate Sarah Palin on his HBO show Friday night.

“Did you hear this – Sarah Palin finally heard what happened in Japan and she’s demanding that we invade ‘Tsunami,’” Maher said. “I mean she said, ‘These ‘Tsunamians’ will not get away with this.’ Oh speaking of dumb tw**s, did you...”

Maher was offering an imagined Palin response in an apparent attempt at humor, as Palin had made no such statement.

The National Organization for Women (NOW) refused to comment on Maher’s use of the derogatory term. A rep told FOXNews.com it is a “known fact” that NOW does not correspond with FOX News.

"Bill Maher feels he can get away with such jaw-droppingly offensive verbal attacks on Sarah Palin because virtually the entire media-academia-entertainment complex agrees with him,” Vadum said. “Clinging to their political correctness and disdain for her quintessentially American values, the left-wing cocktail circuit regards Palin as a punch line.”

http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/2011/03/22/maher-calls-sarah-palin-female-vulgarism-stays-mum/?test=latestnews

Why do I think she's doomed, even though it now looks as if she really does mean to give it a go? She's a Marmite politician, a populist who enthuses enormous swaths of US voters, whose attitudes and personal history makes them feel: "She's me; she understands my hopes and fears."

But Marmite politicians also frighten people. Palin's public utterances and record make many Americans recoil at the very thought that this flake could get anywhere near the levers of power in the federal government in Washington – still the most powerful political job in the world.

It's middle-of-the-road, non-aligned voters – the independents, as they are called in the US – who resolve such conflicting and polarised feelings. That's where Palin is doomed.

The independents seem to have cooled towards Obama, who has proved a disappointment as a national leader in so many ways. It's not clear to many what he stands for; he seems to lack the capacity to connect with the voters on an emotional level and many policy initiatives are floundering.

A lot of Democrats are clearly disappointed too. They'd vote for a convincing Democratic alternative – not visible yet unless you think Hillary Clinton is still a runner at 63 – and independents might well back a reassuring Republican.

Republican voters, the kind of people who are deeply disaffected with the political process – hence the increase in support for Tea Party insurgents – would probably rally to the party standard-bearer. All political partisans like to win.

But Palin's achilles heel isn't her silly speeches and inadequate grasp of public policy in TV interviews except on Fox News. It probably isn't even her dabbling with reality TV, which alarms even so hard-nosed a Republican pro as Karl Rove, "Bush's brain".

No. It's her standing in her own back yard. She was governor of Alaska, you remember, but walked out on the job halfway through her controversial first term. In the mid-term elections she was an enthusiastic supporter of Tea Party protege Joe Miller. Overnight it seems confirmed – at last – that he lost the count.

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reasonably minded independents like myself likely will not vote for her.

And it certainly won't help is Michelle Bachman enters the races as she will take some of the Palin's support from her.

Personally, I think Palin woiuld be smart to heed the words of Andrew Breibart but that's just my opinion as someone who prefers someone who has the intestinal fortitude to finish what they start.

Sarah Palin's support among likely Republican primary voters is fading according to a newly-released Gallup poll, the second national survey this week to indicate the Alaska Republican is headed in the wrong direction as the 2012 primary race gears up.

Accord to the Gallup survey, which was released Friday, Palin draws 12 percent of support from Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, a 4 percent decline from a similar Gallup survey conducted one month ago. Those results are similar to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released earlier this week showing Palin had fallen 7 points between January and March, from 19 percent to 12 percent.

Recent surveys from Pew and NBC News also indicate the former Alaska governor and 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee's current support hovers around the low double digits – a definitive drop from her showings in similar polls earlier this year.

I hardly see how I'm a fence sitter Sam

when I've said all along she will not win. I'm not a huge fan of "I told you so" but when she loses I will personally drive to Burnsville and deliver one to you as I laugh my ass off.

I am curious though as to why you think Bachman won't strip her of votes

the big difference being that Bachman hasn't quit and Palin did.

......

Stephanie wrote:All the people I know who loved Palin two years ago love her even more today, Aaron.

But business is business and politics is politics. Was tonight's speech helpful to building her appeal as a candidate? Hundreds who adore her streamed out of the ballroom with giggles, convinced that Sarah would be their gal in 2012. But the U.S. electorate, stubborn as it is, would disagree. Elections are won and lost in the middle, not on the extremes. Palin's fiery rebuke of Washington certainly firmed her base, but it did little to widen her appeal to moderates and independents, two groups without which she’d have a real tough time passing the threshold of electoral votes. (At one point, she even mocked the majority of voters who voted for President Obama, asking them, “How's that hopey-changey thing working for you now?”)

Which is to say that electorally speaking, tonight’s speech was a self-inflicted wound for Palin, offering ammo to opponents to argue that she’s simply too far right and too niche to win widespread support for national office. Speeches like this make the people who love Palin love her even more, and the people who don’t ever more certain why they don’t. In other words, Palin further polarized herself with the American public.


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SamCogar wrote:

I hardly see how I'm a fence sitter Sam

HA, I thought you probably knew, but I guess I was giving you too much credit, ….. again.

Fence sitters get their name from sitting astraddle of the “fence” and telling anyone they think is listening ……. the reasons why any and every Political Candidate being discussed …….. can’t win and/or will not win ….. and the specific reasons why “people won’t vote for them”……. without actually saying that they are not going to vote for said Candidate.

From the Free Dictionary online

fence sitter
n. Informal
One who takes a position of neutrality or indecision, as in a controversial matter.

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From Princeton University Online Dictionary based on Random House (2 definations)

fence-sit·ter   /ˈfɛnsˌsɪtər/ Show Spelled
[fens-sit-er]
–noun
a person who remains neutral or undecided in a controversy.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Origin:
1900–05

fence-sit·ting
noun
a person who won't take sides in a controversy

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And from infoplease online.

fence-sit•ter

Pronunciation: (fens'sit"ur), [key]
—n.
a person who remains neutral or undecided in a controversy.

source

SamCogar wrote:So what, you quit and walked away from your job, …… didn’t you?

Since leaving office at the end of July 2009, the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee has brought in at least 100 times her old salary – a haul now estimated at more than $12 million -- through television and book deals and a heavy schedule of speaking appearances worth five and six figures.

That conservative estimate is based on publicly available records and news accounts. The actual number is probably much higher, but is hard to quantify because Palin does not publicize her earnings. She reputedly got a $7 million deal for her first book, with the bulk of that money due after her resignation as governor, and will earn about $250,000 per episode, according to the web site The Daily Beast, for each of eight episodes of a reality show about Alaska for the The Learning Channel. She has managed to keep a lid on reliable figures for her earnings from a multi-year contract with Fox News and a second book deal with HarperCollins.

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Aaron wrote:At least you get that she won't win.

Now try explaining it to Sam so he'll stop his crying over my pointing out the truth.

That term was coined to define those who are indecisive and/or can't make up their mind about a specific topic.

I chose the latter as I wanted to come home for my youngest two children’s last years of high school. I was told I was a fool as 3 of the jobs offered were 6 figure salaries but for me, there are more important things then money. I don't expect you to understand my decision but there are many who do.

Palin on the other hand simply quit. She can say it was to avoid bankruptcy but that's hardly the case now, is it?

SamCogar wrote:

I chose the latter as I wanted to come home for my youngest two children’s last years of high school. I was told I was a fool as 3 of the jobs offered were 6 figure salaries but for me, there are more important things then money. I don't expect you to understand my decision but there are many who do.

Palin on the other hand simply quit. She can say it was to avoid bankruptcy but that's hardly the case now, is it?

Aaron, no matter how you "spin it", ....... you are still "badmouthing" Palin for the same thing you are guilty of, ........ and that makes you a hypocrite, ........ an extremely jealous"sexist" hypocrite.

SamCogar wrote:Ps: me thinks you now realize that you "screwed up royally" ......... which only adds insult too your injury.

SamCogar wrote:

Aaron wrote:At least you get that she won't win.

Now try explaining it to Sam so he'll stop his crying over my pointing out the truth.

That term was coined to define those who are indecisive and/or can't make up their mind about a specific topic.

Aaron, as long as you keep yourself convinced that the sole purpose of an Election is to determine “which Candidate will not win” ……… then you will remain being right in thinking that you are not a “fence setter” ……… because it appears you are never neutral, indecisive or undecided about who you think is going to “lose an Election”.

But in actuality, …… Elections are about “WINNING”, ……. not about ”LOSING”.

And like I told you before, you are part of the majority that has been nurtured to “vote against a Candidate” to prevent him/her from winning.

Aaron wrote:Once again, you don't have a clue as to what you're talking about. You're credibility is about as low as it can be but you keep trying to take it lower. Why?

SamCogar wrote:

Aaron wrote:Once again, you don't have a clue as to what you're talking about. You're credibility is about as low as it can be but you keep trying to take it lower. Why?

Aaron, your ability to judge my credibility is about a -2 on a Scale of 1 to 10, .......... so it really doesn't surprise me that you think what you do.

You know Sam ole chap, I notice that when you disagree with me, you never refute anything I say

What you need to understand is that I honestly could care less if you agree with me or not.

Aaron wrote:If I'm wrong on Palin Sam then why don't you explain why it is that only 1 in 10 Republicans rank her as their choice as President?

If you can.

Survey Methods
Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted March 18-22, 2011, on the Gallup Daily tracking survey, with a random sample of 1,082 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, selected using random-digit-dial sampling.

For results based on the total sample of Republicans, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each daily sample includes a minimum quota of 200 cell phone respondents and 800 landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents for gender within region. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Hispanic ethnicity, education, region, adults in the household, cell phone-only status, cell phone-mostly status, and phone lines. Demographic weighting targets are based on the March 2010 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

View methodology, full question results, and trend data.

For more details on Gallup's polling methodology, visit www.gallup.com.

Aaron wrote:I think if you do your research of either, you can find out enough Cato. I've read up on Palin and had she not quit on Alaska solely to cash in and then hi-jacked the TEA Party movement, I would likely support her as she did some remarkable things before she quit on Alaska to cash in.

Aaron wrote:As for Bachman, her life in politics began by protesting mandatory school testing and other educational issues and she has been an ardent supporter of the right to life movement. Sounds familiar, huh.